Constituents! Got in a scuffle and booted tonight in a must-win city league basketball game so I got a lotta juice in the tank that I need to get out so that I can eventually fall asleep (we won in double overtime to secured a playoff birth btw – we are gunna win this shit). So, I though to myself, what better way to do wind down than hitting the constit’s with an audit of our picks this year as I crushed brews in to oblivion and attempt to calm down after a big win? Let’s go:
As we round out the college football regular season and head in to Bowlsville, USA (Somewhere I spent a lot of time in college IYKWIS), I wanted to catch yall up on how our little experiment has gone so far. As yall know by now, the idea behind this website is to aggregate picks from experts – some we pay for, some are free, some give out free picks, etc. – and give them to yall all in one place on our site. We take these picks, list them in a spreadsheet and give yall the consensus picks every week, regardless of our bias. So, the question now is, how did we do?
54.4% Winners on the year for NCAAF
That’s how we did. So, what does that mean? That means if you bet every single official WiseGuys pick, with the exact same amount, all college football season long, you didn’t lose money… but you didn’t win money either. Due to juice, the average gambler needs to average a 55.5 win percentage in order to reap profits and we were right there. We are right on that number.
As is typical in the gambling world, the large majority of the value bets took place in the first 6-7 weeks of the regular season, before the sample size was large enough for Vegas to get a better grip than our professionals and the Average Joe. Through week 7, we were winning at a 63% clip overall (NCAAF and NFL) and a 65% clip in NCAAF only, which is what this article is focused on. That may not seem like a large number but every seasoned gambler knows that 65% is beyond impressive to say the least. After that, we saw the market begin to correct itself and lines become truer than we found them in the beginning.
What have our writers learned in this time frame? A lot. And we will use it to get better as we move along. I do not necessarily want to move away from giving out unbiased, aggregated picks because. After all, I am just a dude who sells insurance doesn’t handicap for a living. But I think maybe taking the aggregated picks and choosing the ones we like may not be a bad idea in the future? The problem with that? It’s not unbiased.
So, I hope yall have enjoyed following along as much as I have enjoyed working with Guy and Geezy on this site. I wish I could have helped line you pockets with more cash, but I am at least happy that we didn’t lose you money. And, if your like most players, you probably didn’t play every single pick – so I hope you came out on top regardless. We gave out a lot more info than just our aggregated picks and if you used it right, you should be in the green.
Now, with all of this being said… Bowl season is a whole ‘nother animal. With interesting matchups and a new level of unpredictability, I am hoping for this rate to climb in to the green as we work thru December. Be sure to peep the site next week for our first bowl season look ahead and we should have a podcast coming as well. Thanks for following along this year and keep with the NFL plays too.
SECURE THE BAG