Sup Constituents,
We’ve been aggregating so as the great Mary J. Blige insists – let’s get it percolating as well. Diving into 3 of the consensus picks, I present the WiseGuys notes on why we agree with the sources and are bringing you what you want.
Free picks = free cheddar. And besides guys being dudes, what’s better than that?
So we begin (if you’ve listened to the pod you’re already privy to this printing press…)
Consensus Picks Analysis
Pitt +4
Both team’s overall defensive efficiency hasn’t been great, and I see senior RB Qadree Ollison having himself a day at home. He had one of his worst games of last year against Tech but… New Year New Ollison. Tech’s defense is 94th in the country in rushing yards per play – this is where I see the difference, as Ollison is averaging nearly 7 ypc and is coming off of a worthy individual performance against Penn State.
Adjusted lines by multiple sources have Pitt undervalued (one seeing this a 2.5 point line, the other seeing the Panthers as a nice ML grab.) Take the points here though as Tech is a trendy public bet but a hefty percentage of the total money is on Pitt.
Clemson –33
Since Dabo has been the Tigers head coach, Clemson is 30-6 after a less-than-one-score W and/or a loss. 6 of those games were 30 point+ victories.
Dabo has acknowledged GA Southern’s near misses in the past against Power 5 schools and he knows the path to the CFB well enough now that teeing off against an easy opponent prior to the ACC schedule kicking off is critical. They will be relentless.
Clemson applies pressure at the highest rate in the FBS at 53.5 percent of dropbacks. GA Southern has had a nice start to their season but still only ranks 68th in total offense. This does not pair well – especially for the road dog.
Even if Kelly Bryant continues to leave a lot left to be desired, he (and Trevor Lawrence who is chomping at the bit to let it fly) will humble on a team that has only faced SCST and UMass…barf.
TCU +13.5
Another take the points and run, no need to get feisty and expect a Miracle in Arlington; similar to Pitt, we’re seeing this line inflated by OSU’s roaring start but the Horned Frogs should be coming in around a 9-10 point dog. Vegas will most likely need a TCU cover here and we’re on it with the book.
TCU has also been putting up points this year and Patterson’s defense won’t let as many plays develop as Oregon State and Rutgers did against the Buckeyes.
Both teams are top 20 in First down offense and moving the chains, but TCU is 4th in team passing efficiency on defense and this is the hook in my opinion. Again – not in the game, but covering the spread here.
Toss in the fact that Ohio State might be looking ahead to Meyer’s return and their looming Big 10 schedule, and I see (as well as a consensus pick from our aggregation,) the Horned Frogs covering. Regardless of this potential effect, the Buckeye’s games against Top 25 opponents in the Urban era have been decided by 10 points or less 56% of the time. Let’s ride, Frogs.
Get paid,
Your boy Faderian Peterson signing out.
