*My brain: Don’t make this about Tiger, don’t make this about Tiger, don’t make this about Tiger
*My fingers: Tiger Mother Fucking Woods kicks off his 2019 season in a familiar location as he begins his quest for win #81 and the all important Major #15. From a gambling perspective, it is always tough to bet on golf, especially this early in the season. But in this article I will attempt to break down my strategy for golf gambling and hopefully tee up some good ideas for you going in to the next few days and the rest of the season.
The best analogy I can think of for gambling on golf would be comparing golf gambling to gambling on the NCAAB Tournament. There are 64 teams, about 10 of them have a legit chance to win it all, but the odds you get to pick the winner before the tournament starts are rarely strong enough to encourage laying cash on an outright winner until we are at least through the Round of 32. In golf’s case, it is pretty much the same strategy. Very rarely do I ever bet on a golfer to win a tournament before the tournament starts and I typically wait until Saturday morning before I even consider picking an outright winner. With that being said, There is sometimes value in picking the winner mid-tournament if you think the odds are high enough to make a pick. Strategy and Tournament breakdown below.
Pre Tournament Strategy
Man vs The Course. Disregard the other golfers in the field, the first step of analysis is taking a look at the course and trying to figure out which golfers have a game that fits. Is it a bomber’s course? Are the fairways tight? What type of grass on the greens? Where do most holes play (do they dog-leg in one direction or the other)? What holes are the “scoring” holes? Once you know the course, it should be easy to narrow down what type of player should excel over the weekend.When thinking about the player, ask yourself, how is his recent form? What is his course history on this site? Are there any changes outside of golf going on with him? Did his wife just put a 7-iron through his back windshield? Once you have this intel, take your eyeballs to the betting sheet and look for value.
Some of my favorite bets to lay pre-tourney are ______ golfer will finish higher than ______ place. Example, this weekend I got Justin Rose finishing higher than 25th (currently tied in 2nd) and Rory finishing higher than 17th (currently tied for 74th). These bets are typically available pre-tournament and usually around even money or sometimes a little juice. There is great value in these plays and your guy doesn’t have to win to cash, he just has to play the way you expect or maybe a little better. If you want some good resources to assist in your handicapping, I love the Tour Junkies (even though they are sometimes insufferable douchebags with high-pitched, nasally voices) podcast and reading their Rotoworld articles and chalk bombs… Or just read my article here.
This is another area where you can often time find value and typically where I lay most of my bets. Going in to the weekend, it is typically pretty evident who is going to have a shot at winning and who is not worth consideration. This one is pretty simple, look at recent form over the last 2 days. Figure out who is playing the most consistent. Put your money on that guy. Another way to play is to get the mid tournament matchups, ex: Tiger vs Rory on Friday, who goes lower? If you see a favorable matchup, hit it. This should be obvious.
Farmers Open Breakdown and Mid-Tournament Strategy
I’ll be short with the pre-tournament strategy here since the thing already started but this 7,700 yard BEAST is the longest course on normal rotation. Small greens. Distance is very important, but ball striking may be more vital as strong winds and small greens make it tougher to get in scoring position. If you can’t hit the green, scrambling percentage will need to be high. Most of the scoring will take place on the North course (as we saw yesterday) and the south should bring some of these low ass scores back to reality today.
So, what I am looking at moving forward? Well, it kind of changes every day. Today, I am focused mostly on the fading the guys who played the north course yesterday and favoring the ones who were on the south. Looking at recent form, I was fading Spieth hard but he proved me wrong yesterday. Will his luck be as favorable today on the south side? TBD. If you are sitting at -1 or worse, I expect a lot of risks to be taken which could lead to mishaps and higher scores. For those sitting at -2 and better, the name of the game today is staying in contention going in to the weekend. Here’s what I am laying so far today:
2nd Round Lowest Score
JB Holmes +100 vs Emiliano Grillo
Rory -125 vs Rickie
Justin Rose -165 vs Spieth
Secure. The. Bag.