Constituents! Welcome back.
We’ve got a WiseGuys play ATS and then non-endorsed but Faderian approved player props to get you primed for tonight’s MNF action.
With this line being bet down to a weird -5.5 in favor of the home team Eagles, we see a consensus pick across the board for Philly to cover. Two of our preferred WiseGuys have this line modeled at -7 and a third has it up to -7.5.
The Eagles have posted their two best overall run grades in Weeks 12 and 13 since their season best Week 4; this resurgence comes behind undrafted Notre Dame Product Josh Adams. His yards after contact have been above average, while the Redskins’ tackling and pressure created off the line have both been below average.
Defensive performance has been erratic for both sides, but the Eagles will have to generate takeaways against back up Colt McCoy – as Philly has been bottom of the barrel in terms of turnovers this season.
The Eagles as a whole are healthier, as the Skins are trotting out a make shift OL to protect a backup QB that I didn’t even know was still in the league until Alex Smith went down. Insert every obvious reason the above must-do comes true as the Eagles look to keep McCoy off balance.
We don’t give out totals and this game is a great example as to why; it’s currently sitting at 45 flat, and most of our WiseGuys are coming in at 45 as well. Both teams are capable of scoring points enough to push this very close to that number. Teasing the over at 38 looks ripe.
The official pick: Eagles -5.5
Carson Wentz OVER 263.5 Passing Yards (-130.)
- Wentz has gone over this number in 6 of his 9 starts this season, and passing attacks from the Packers, Saints, Falcons, and Cowboys all carved up Washington’s secondary. In 4 career starts against the Skins, he’s also averaging 267 yds/game through the air (which includes one outlier at 179.)
Jordan Reed OVER 4.5 Receptions (-140)
- Reed has been targeted early and often since Alex Smith has gone down, notching games of 7 and 6 catches. McCoy looks to Reed regularly, as his last stint as a fill in starter in 2014 resulted in games of 5,7, and 9 receptions for Reed.
Josh Adams OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-130)
- See above. Couple that with Adams’ 5.1 ypc clip in November, expect him to get downhill more again tonight as he’s becoming more and more familiar with the offense.
Golden Tate scores a TD (+175)
- Norman will most likely blanket Alshon Jeffery and Swearinger will likely shadow Zach Ertz. The Skins have given up TDs to WRs at an alarming rate recently and Tate should find pay dirt for the first time with his new team (and first since week 4 of his 2018 campaign.)
Bread gettin time, folks.
– – Faderian