Constituents – Welcome back for Week 2 of NCAAF! Last week we ended up green (although we would have liked to have been greener) finishing 3-2 with our aggregated picks. This week, we have a new slate of picks and a lot more action so get that bankroll ready.
One thing to note in this article – there has been a TON of line movement this week. One challenge we have as an aggregator is that we have to wait for our sources to post their picks and many of them don’t come thru until late in the week when the line has moved. Because of this, you are going to see some numbers that aren’t where they were when the sources made the picks. Be smart. Let’s ride:
Week 2 Official Picks
Wake Forest -17 @ Rice
So two things about this game:
- 1. It kicks off in 2 hours
- 2. The line has moved to -19 (may be a little out of reach here now).
Rice is fucking terrible and still somehow managed to keep it close against an Army team last week that significantly underperformed. Unfortunately for people with Army -23 tickets (us), Rice got the cover. This week, we are going back to the well fading the Owls and thinking the Deamon Deacons of Wake Forest are primed for a big win. Coming off a close one at home against Utah State, Wake should have some momentum and I expect them to score early and often. Again, be careful as this line has trickled up to -19 in some spots – you may want to consider a parlay with bought points or a teaser. 6 WiseGuys on Wake, 1 on Rice.
Marshall @ Boise State -10.5
Yup… the line moved again. A LOT this time. The Thundering Herd (is or are?) is catching 14 points now so same suggestion on this game – either buy it down through the key number “14” or tease it with another game (how about the one above?). Both these games are Friday night too so could set you off for a big weekend. The WiseGuys love the Smurf Turf in Boise and we are expecting an easy dubb. Total consensus here with 6 WiseGuys on Boise, none on Marshall.
Army +22 @ Michigan
Army came out last week and laid a damn EGG against Rice and now they are out to redeem themselves. If not only for their fans, for their mental state. Although they underperformed, this team has talent and obviously a ton of grit. Michigan showed weaknesses last week giving up 21 to an abysmal MTSU team and there is a good chance they haven’t given Army much thought and are looking ahead to Wisconsin next week. HOORAH DAMMIT! 6 WiseGuys picked army, 1 picked Michigan.
Louisiana Monroe +21 @ Florida State
This one is pretty simple – here we have ULM’s only hope to pull off a massive win this season and Florida State has joined Tennessee in the “We have no identity” category. Plus, these poo souls in Monroe, Louisiana have quite literally nothing else to live for (see their TripAdviser page here – Top 10 things to do include going to a swamp, a strip mall and ballet in the woods?). Do I expect the Seminoles to win the game? Sure. But I expect a lackluster effort from their side and ULM should be hongry. Another full consensus – 6 WiseGuys on ULM, 0 on FSU.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -7
Both of these teams are COMPLETE babbage. Absolute embarrassments to football. But, Ole Miss is better, at home and still has something to live for this season (unlike Arkansas). Their poor fans will be forced to sit around drinking warm beer and discussing the Louisiana Purchase while their team dwindles for the next 3 months so they need to get their wins in now. The Rebels, wait, The Black Bears get it done at home. 5 WiseGuys on Ole Miss, 0 on Arky.
Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky -15
Based on what I’ve read, this is more of an “Eastern Michigan fucking sucks” than a “I still think Kentucky can win 8 games” type of pick. To be honest, I hate the number (-15) but we’ll be playing it. I will throw out that you should probably buy it to 14 to cover your ass but our official pick is -15. 6 WiseGuys on the ‘Cats, 0 on whoever Eastern Michigan’s mascot is.
Arkansas State +2.5 @ UNLV
Hopefully this is the last time we write about either of these JV teams on this site. 5 WiseGuys picked Arky State, 0 picked UNLV.
Big Game Breakdowns
Ok, so these are not official picks but there are some big games this weekend getting a lot of attention so we will continue to break these down every week even if there is no consensus.
Texas A&M +17.5 @ Clemson
I’m on this game in so many ways it’ll make your head spin (REALLLLLLY wanted to hyperlink Meatspin right there but I have a ton of self control, you’re welcome), but mostly on TAMU to cover +17.5 straight up and on a few 7-point teasers. Trevor Lawrence looked civilian last week for the first time in his career going 13/23 passing for ~170 yards against Georgia Tech. Without the breakout performance of Etienne (who rushed for 200 FUCKING YARDS!!!), this game could’ve been close. Now – enter Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies. While Dabo holds a slight edge in the head to head record, Jimbo has long had Clemson’s number in the covering department dating back to his Tallahassee days. The Aggies have a powerful offense (it appears) and I think they’ll be able to put up points. My lean – the boys from College Station.
LSU -6 @ Texas
Lemme get this straight – you want me to believe Texas is “back” and yet they’re a full TD home underdog? Gimme a fucking break. If you read the article last week, you know how I feel about the Longhorns – I don’t believe. LSU on the other hand has weapons all over the place on offense and is going to make Ehlinger use his arm plenty in this game, which should be problematic for the QB. This line opened Texas -1 over the summer and has since been slowly creepin all the way up to LSU -6. I have it a few ways but mostly LSU moneyline in parlays and LSU -3. Play it.
Alright fools – that’s it for this week. Best of luck and SECURE. THE. BAG.