As always, welcome back. We took it on the chin last week with a 2-4-1 slate and some of those losses weren’t even close. Good news is that we’re resilient AF and poised for a big week.
There wasn’t much to exploit last week and we had some consensus picks carrying more conflict than usual, but this week brings us 6 lines where we’ve seen holes in the market that can be poked.
3 Consensus, no conflict picks and another 3 with just one conflicting side are your official WiseGuys Sponsored Aggs for NCAAF Week 6.
Let’s dive the fuck in and print some money.
Boston College +4.5 @ Louisville
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 5-1 Boston College
We had 5 of our WiseGuys on the Eagles’ side this week, two of which have them winning outright against the Cardinals. Superior Birds, obviously.
We’ve seen the line come down from the opener at 6 to 4.5, and this didn’t keep those on BC from backing out of this play.
Football Outsiders has these two teams as a toss-up in terms of overall efficiency this season. While Louisville has been trending up in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, Boston College boasts one of the best rushing attacks in college football and the Cards have been average against the run.
Couple the Eagles’ strong backfield with a disparaging difference in moving the chains (BC is far superior on the 3rd downs) – and we, along with the WiseGuys, are taking the points.
Boston College +4.5
Baylor @ Kansas State -1.5
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 6-1 Kansas State
Baylor got a “signature” win against Iowa State last weekend but other than that they’ve beat up on UTSA and squeaked by Rice. Their total offense and defense rankings are skewed by a smaller sample size and weaker schedule than most.
Kansas State on the other hand held off a decent Mississippi State team and rebounded from a poor first half to give OK State a game last week. KSU has a stronger secondary and on the other side of the ball they get more air yards per play than Baylor by a significant margin.
The predictive models have KSU covering more than a field goal in this one at home, handing Baylor their first loss of the season. Lay the 1.5, easy.
Kansas State -1.5
Troy +24.5 @ Mizzou
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 6-1 Troy
Alright, yes Troy has been getting gashed through the air and Kelly Bryant carries weight with his name and prior Clemson pedigree. Beyond that and a nice stat line against Wyoming (that still led to a loss,) Bryant hasn’t flashed like Mizzou hoped for when he transferred in the offseason.
The line has moved a tick, down to 24.5 from the opening 25, but our aggregate adjusted line according to four predictive models shows Troy closer to a true 3 touchdown dog in this one. Troy is checking in with a healthy 6.57 yards per play on offense and sport the 12th overall Total offense in the FBS.
Getting an extra 3 to 3.5 points here in Troy’s favor cancels out their daunting-on-paper opponent, and our WiseGuys are 6-1 on the Trojans side, thus we roll with them.
Rice @ UAB -9.5
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 5-0 UAB
Our first of 3 Consensus, No-Conflict picks of the week! We need a better name for these picks but that’s where we’re at right now.
Alright, lets get down to it. Death, taxes, and Rice Sucks Balls On the Gridiron. The line has bopped around back and forth all week and has settled in at a nice -9.5 for UAB.
Bill Clark seems to be building a program that will vault him into a Power 5 job sooner rather than later, but that’s not happening between today and tomorrow.
I could go into this further but here’s what it boils down to with this game, Pro Football Focus has UAB ranked #1 in overall efficiency, total offense, and total defense in the Conference USA – despite a bad loss to WKU last week. Rice is dead last in O and D according to PFF, and somehow second to dead last in overall efficiency. That’s all you need to know, the Blazers rebound at home and demolish the Riceroni Owls.
Washington @ Stanford +16
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 5-0 Stanford
Pick #2 that’s Consensus No-Conflict, or “CNC” Numero Dos.
This one opened anywhere between 17 and 17.5 depending on where you looked. According to Action Network, big bettors have hammered Stanford and the line shows as its down to +16.
This movement hasn’t shied our other sources away though, one of which projects this as a 4 point ballgame. Across the board, we’re seeing projected models no higher than 14 point spreads.
The Huskies are on a roll since dropping to Cal in Week 2 – and we don’t see them having a hiccup here at Stanford straight up. Although the Cardinal haven’t covered the spread since Week 1, something’s gotta give right? They still have a great rush defense, so if they can limit Eason through the air, then they can keep this one closer than it appears.
Follow the sharps…
California +18 @ Oregon
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 8-0 California
Onto our 3rd and heaviest CNC of the week – as 8 of our WiseGuys are targeting the Gold Bears against the Ducks.
Getting more than a field goal in points here according to our WiseGuys’ models, and at a consensus 8-0 in favor of Cal, we’re taking these points all the way up Interstate 5 to Eugene.
Oregon’s defense – and just about any statistics you measure here – is narrowly ahead of Cal, but Cal’s 3-1 record is comprised of all 4 games finishing within one score. Add in the fact that the Ducks have been prepping for Garbers through their bye week, and will now get the relatively unknown Devon Modster and his mobility in reserve, the WiseGuys are taking Cal to keep yet another tilt close.
That’s it, constituents. Make money, we shall. Godspeed.