Here we are in Week 7 of the College Football season and pretenders are being weeded out and contenders are taking form. The eye tests, the advanced metrics, the pros and the joes all have a sample size that’s starting to yield more and more parity.
With that, we identified a whopping eighteen games that had multiple sources in agreement but one conflicting take; additionally, we found another eight games with multiple sources on the same side of the fence but two conflicting takes.
While that screams instant success and I’m sure you’re reading this in anticipation for our 26-game slate here, we’ve dialed it in and found four consensus no-conflict picks and a Friday night game with six preferred sources in consensus opposed to just one conflicting pick.
Let’s dive into the Aggregate Picks sponsored by WiseGuys Gambling for Week 7.
We’ll start with our only consensus play for Friday Night so you can get on the board early:
Arizona Wildcats +14.5 @ Utah Utes:
You might be thinking to yourself, this seems familiar. And while the SumlinCats did indeed get the WiseGuys and Constituents a nice, aggregate ML upset last week – we’re not succumbing to recency bias here.
Our same preferred sources are back on Arizona this week. No one is predicting another W out of the Wildcats, but this 2 TD line drew the attention of 6 of 7 pros. Most of the predictive models we’re seeing have this closer to a 9 or 10 point line, so taking that additional FG+ is in your favor.
Khalil Tate and Kevin Sumlin are startin vibe and will look to light it up in what seems to be a trap game for the Utes (coming off a huge win against Stanford coupled with looking ahead to USC next week.)Utah’s D is underrated but Tate’s ability to move the chains will keep them in this game.
Now onto the Consensus No-Conflict picks for Week 7
7 Washington Huskies -3.5 @ 17 Oregon Ducks
This is the only marquee matchup of the week appearing on the Aggrocrag and we have 6 experts are laying the points. One would take a quick glance at this Pac 12 showdown and think that Oregon’s fast start to the season, coming off a bye week, and having the luxury of being at home that the Dog here is the pick.
Not so fast. The Huskies and Ducks are a combined 3-8 ATS this year, so something’s got to give. The Ducks have some edge rushers that could pose a threat to a banged up Huskies line, but Myles Gaskin should provide the breathing room Browning will need to put points on the board. With the offenses on a similar trajectory and the Washington D having more clout, we look to Football Outsiders’ FEI ratings to see where Washington’s backing is truly coming from. The FEI ratings are described as ”opponent-adjusted possession efficiency” and Washington ranks 5th overall to Oregon’s 64th.
Justin Herbert has not truly been tested yet this year outside of a Cal team that is fading fast. The Huskies D has been talked about by pundits and written about here and elsewhere quite a bit, and until they give us a reason not to – they’re the X Factor here. Assuming Jake Browning protects the football and churns the clock, it’s safe to roll with the Pac-12 favorite and the points.
New Mexico Lobos @ Colorado State Rams (Pick)
Low key this is our favorite Border Battle in the entire US. Yours too, right? This has sat at even money pretty much all week, and we have a five source, no-conflict consensus on the Rams. 3 of those sources would have adjusted this line to CSU -6. That’s a ton of value on the Rams in a game that should play well into the 60’s and favor the home team.
Senior QB KJ Carta-Samuels has developed quite the rapport with Tennessee transfer Preston Williams this season, and going against a defense giving up over 260 aerial yards per game should allow for CSU to win this shootout at home.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5 @ Maryland Terrapins
The Scarlet Knights have one thing going for them – they’ve got a 5 pick no-conflict consensus to cover the spread this weekend. 2-4 ATS this year, Rutger’s cover against Indiana two weeks ago was a WiseGuys aggregate pick as well.
They give up a shit ton of points, their QB loves throwing picks, and yet somehow the sharps are digin them to cover here. Maryland is not strong through the air and the Rutger’s secondary is about the only aspect worth writing home about. This has the makings of a 34-14 ground assault, Maryland won’t have the explosive plays or time on the clock to run it up too badly. Take the points.
UAB Blazers @ Rice Owls +16.5
Maybe we’ll call this column the Bottom Feeder Consensus Picks, because the low life Rice Owls are coming in as a no conflict consensus pick to cover the 16.5 points at home this weekend. My degenerate circle outside of the WiseGuys have a few mantras by which we live (shouts out to HammBone, Vegas Will, MurphBoard, and J$.) Rule #1 has always been “ALWAYS BET AGAINST RICE.” While a usually profitable strategy, I must fade the mantra and follow the sharps on this one.
UAB has been piss poor against the run this year and I believe they’ll get a heavy dose of SR RB Austin Walker and his strong 5.7 YPC clip. Clock will churn, Rice will score a few TDs and the Blazers won’t put enough on the board. And at that, would we really be “Wise”Guys to bet against some Owls? That was fuckin terrible, carry on.
So to recap, we’re rolling with the following and once again summiting the Aggrocrag this weekend:
Arizona Wildcats +14.5
7 Washington Huskies -3.5
Colorado State Rams (Pick)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5
@ Rice Owls +16.5
Secure the bag, Constituents. Secure that mf bag.
From our faithful leader, Lil Deric, and his last post – I’m following his lead here: Any game that had more than one expert play will be listed below so you can see where we stand. These are not official WiseGuys plays but use the info to your advantage.
Iowa State 5; WVU 1
Duke 5; GT 1
Vandy 5; UF 1
Pitt 4; ND 1
Colorado 3; USC 1
UGA 4; LSU 2
Wisconsin 4; Michigan 2
UVA 4; Miami 2
Baylor 4; Texas 2
Scar 4; A&M 2
Godspeed out there,