Ayyyyeeee constituents, let’s print some money. Week 8 is upon us and there’s not many true marquee matchups this week but we’ve got plenty of exploitable lines and games worth watching.
We’ve got 7 ripe picks here for you degenerates, 4 of which were Consensus No-Conflict picks. You’
Clemson -24 @ Louisville
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 7-1 Clemson
Clemson has not wowed yet this season and Louisville is sitting a surprising 4-2 mark for the year. Clemson’s vaunted D is coming under fire for not being as elite as it has in the past, yet they’re still holding opponents to 12.3 points per game.
After a scare at Chapel Hill, the Tigers throttled FSU; Louisville’s back end of the defense won’t be able to contain the plethora of riches Trevor Lawrence has at his disposal at wide out. Our WiseGuys expect the Clemson D to show up with that elite defensive performance against a gimmick offense headed by a couple of backup QBs.
Tigers route the Cards.
TCU @ Kansas State +3.5
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 5-0 KSU
The Wildcats burned us earlier this year, but 5 WiseGuys are taking the points here at home – 3 of which are playing the KSU Moneyline as well.
TCU has the top rated defense in the Big 12 according to Pro Football Focus, but Kansas State was rolling prior to dropping back to back games to OK State and Baylor. TCU’s defensive rating is padded by games against scrub ass Arkansas Pine Bluff and lowly Kansas.
Both teams will want to establish the run early and often and neither have an affinity for the big play.
Lay points and roll with the No Conflict Consensus Wildcats.
ULM @ Appalachian State -15
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 6-0 Appy State
App State is 10th in the country in points per game at a robust 41, and ULM does not generate enough yards per play through the air to keep up.
Coming off extended preparation and back at home where the Mountaineers light it up, our Aggs are giving the home team a No Conflict consensus nod – with multiple predictive models coming in at closer to a 3 score game.
Lay the Mountaineer points, folks.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State -3.5
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 9-2 OK State
So Baylor is due to regress, right? Like where tf did this come from thus far? The underlying metrics would suggest that its not a fluke at all – as they’re incredibly efficient on both sides of the ball; unfortunately for the Bears though, metrics can’t save them from having to replace a starting left tackle and their stud MLB this week – two key positions they’d like to have against OK State’s top 5 O and D in the Big 12.
Gundy has been strong ATS at home coming off a bye week as well. Our trusty sharps are loving the Pokes. Lay ‘em constituents.
Arizona State +13 @ Utah
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 7-1 ASU
Alright, don’t get cute here and take the Sun Devils ML. Yes, their head coach is Mr. You Play To Win the Game, but he’s going up against and fundamentally sound Utah squad across the board. If ASU can show improvement in the running game and flex their superior air attack muscle a bit, they’ll keep this one close.
Expect a defensive struggle and Utah will take the air out of the ball, but our WiseGuys are in 7 to 1 favor that ASU keeps this one within two scores.
Sun Devils and the points.
Army -5 @ Georgia State
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 6-0 Army
As a Tennessee fan, its pains me to write this harsh reality; Georgia State is a trash ass football team and despite Army being one dimensional – they’re really fucking good at the one dimension. They’ll run the fuck out of the rock and Georgia State’s abysmal stuff rate and opponent average yards per play will gash them and our Guys think it will be by more than 5.
Army covers this one with ease. Hammer it folks.
Tulane @ Memphis -4
WiseGuys Aggregate Picks: 7-0 Memphis
After diving into this one, I’m incredibly inclined to actually tune it for it. Both teams are incredibly underrated according to Football Outsider’s overall team efficiency numbers. Both Top 35 in overall efficiency, the Green Wave and the Tigers are pretty similarly according to all metrics.
Norvell is the tenured coach here and is at home – our trusted WiseGuys see Tiger High having a drastic leg up on Tulane in the passing game. Memphis takes care of business through air and covers this one – I’d buy it to 3.5 if you cam but -4 is the play as of writing.
Here is a list of the other games with heavy consensus but enough conflict/shitty lines to keep them from being official plays – I’m going to tease most of these (already have honestly):
Washington; Bowling Green; Boston College; West Virginia; Purdue