Bout that time folks, its Super Bowl weekend and an outrageous amount of money has been and is about to be gambled this weekend. And that’s why you’re here. Constituents – welcome back. New here? Tryna make a quick buck? Welcome to the Constituency.
Before your boy, Faderian Peterson, dives into some Super Bowl KPIs – I’d like to remind you that I nailed my Super Bowl matchup prediction last year prior to the playoffs starting.
I’d also like to remind you that I had the fuckin Rams beating the Patriots. So yeah, not that sweet.
I gloat here only to continue gloating though – and tell you that I hold a 12/1 Chiefs future from October currently. I’ve since hedged a bit and I am on the 49ers +1.5 for a couple of units and holding my breath for a 1 point Chiefs Super Bowl dub. Would be a sexy ass bag to secure, huh.
I write all of this strictly to remind you that A) I’m not totally full of shit, but B) contrary to popular belief I am not God and C) we aggregate as much data and picks from preferred sites and touts into once place so that you can do one-stop shopping for your Super Bowl betting pleasure.
Outside of losing a bunch of dumb prop bets – I will be positive Sunday come the final bell. So this research is unbiased on a personal level, and the sites we aggregate are a mix of predictive models and dudes we’ve all followed and tailed successfully over the years of degeneracy collectively accumulated.
So let’s get down to some gridiron bidness.
First things first:
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
Our WiseGuys currently sit at a 6-4 split in favor of the Chiefs to cover the 1.5 and while we don’t give out Total picks as official WiseGuys plays its worth noting that the same sources are 9-1 in favor of the under.
Out of those 10 sources that have put picks on paper so far – the largest margin of victory is Chiefs by 3; one of the 4 plays in favor of the Niners has them winning outright by 2 points. These are a combination for the predictive models or sources that give outright point predictions, some of the picks are just listing which side they’re on and not their true score prediction.
With that being said, the eye test would have/has pushed me to thinking the Chiefs win this bitch in a rout – but diving into it shows that these two teams are about as evenly matched as possible.
Per Pro Football Reference, 8 Super Bowls have closed the spread at 2.5 or less; let’s toss out the two blowouts in 1984 and 2014 – of the remaining 6, the average margin of victory is 4.833. Coupling our WiseGuys and this trend, it will indeed be a tight one on Sunday.
Both teams DVOA’s and weighted DVOA’s are right in line with each other. Their total O and total D balance out on paper. Time of possession – check. Yards per play vs Opponent’s Yards per play, again – another balancing act.
One difference that will be the key factor here is KC’s incredible ability to be successful on early downs. Patty Mahomes is a force and should be able to pick apart the Niner’s zone D. They will absolutely have to force numerous 3rd and 4th down situations; good news is – they have been able to do just that with outstanding defensive success rates on early downs.
Boods jumping in here to take over from Gentry. Since he holds a Chiefs future and hedged with the 49ers, we needed an unbiased player to give out the pick. So, here it is:
Chiefs -1 and Under 54.5
Other props we are seeing/playing: See Guy WiseGuy’s prop article from yesterday.
Best of luck to everyone out there today – hit us on twitter with your wins/losses and we will see you on the other side of football season!