So fuckin glad to see you. We’re just hours away from the Promised Land where the sweat just hits different, the cold guys taste a little crisper, and your gluttony for punishment sees a significant uptick.
Some of you might add “Venmo requests from the bookie are more frequent,” to the sentiments above but that stops here.
There’s still time to get those Totals bets in folks.
- Because we’re talkin season long plays of course but more importantly B) The WiseGuys crushed it on the NCAAF gambling gridiron last year and we’re just getting started. So for your first taste of 2019 WiseGuys knowledge, we’re diving into your boy’s – Faderian Peterson, of course – best bets for Season Wins totals.
Free Wisdom, Free Money.
Without further ado, time to pop that 2019 cherry:
Virginia: Total 7.5
The Pick – Over (-120)
Picked by many to square off against Clemson in the ACC Championship come December, the Cavaliers seem to be on a steady upward trajectory under the guidance of Bronco Mendenhall (what a fuckin football name that guy carries.)
With Bryce Perkins returning as their lead QB and a full supporting cast, the offense should continue to progress. The defense loses more, specifically in their front 7, but betting against a guy named Bronco that has a track record of defensive ascent is not the route to take here.
With 10 games of win probability of more than 50% (and one of the 2 projected losses being at a rebuilding Miami with a bye beforehand,) we love the Cavs to get to 8 dubs here.
Wake Forest: Total 6
The Pick -Over (+100)
So the Demon Deacons have to get us to 7 wins, you say. And this is by far the least sexy pick of the lot. But the Deacs catch a very favorable schedule during first half of the season, they get FSU and NC State both at home after that stretch, and end with winnable games against Duke and at Cuse. Chalk up back to back road trips to Virginia Tech and Clemson and fat L’s, but there isn’t really a guaranteed loss on this schedule outside of those two bouts.
The Deacs had QB turnover like none other last year and still managed a top 50 offensive efficiency rating. While an 8 win season in 2017 seems like the very distant past, Dave Clawson’s ability to take middle of the road teams and exceed expectations has been well documented.
2 of their 3 QBs that started last year are back and competing, they have an experienced 1,000 yard rusher in Senior Cade Carney returning as well. Lastly they return impact (Wake Forest standards of “impact”) starters on all 3 levels of their defense as well.
Find 2 or more dubs in toss up games against Utah State, FSU, NC State, and Syracuse and the over cashes at a comfortable even money line.
Ohio State: Total 10
The Pick – Under (-115)
Unrefined, first take optics on the Buckeyes – 10 wins for a first year head coach is a lot regardless if you’ve been a part of the system and the talent you have on the roster. Couple that with a new QB under center and it seems even more daunting.
Ohio State gets the benefit of the doubt on the flip side of everything mentioned above, but the Big Ten looks to be Michigan’s to take for the first time in Harbaugh’s tenure and Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State are all games that aren’t going to be as easy as in years past. You’ll see below that our aggs aren’t bullish on the upstart Cornhuskers – but that’s not a gimme in Lincoln this year either.
OSU has had a penchant for dropping a game that they shouldn’t, so we (and our WiseGuys,) give this total a push at worst.
Psssst…. The Cincy Bearcats aren’t scrubs either. Hammer the under.
Nebraska: Total 8.5
The Pick – Under (-115)
Scott Frost and Adrian Martinez’s Cornhuskers have been given a generous amount of hype going into year 2 under Frost. They have a favorable schedule and return much of their defense (not saying much after last year’s efforts on that front.
4 wins to 9 is a lot to ask from any second year coach and our WiseGuys agg’d this one as a consensus under pick. Games at Colorado, Minnesota, Purdue, and Maryland are four road tests that are not sure fire dubs; Ohio State and Wisconsin are daunting – and while Iowa loses their stud TE duo they return very experienced WRs for the prolific Nate Stanley. Split the road games, win one of the 3 aforementioned home tests and that’s still just 8-4.
8 seems doable all things considered for the Cornhuskers, but overcoming an 82nd ranked defensive efficiency from 2018 and vaulting a faulty defense into a new, competitive stratosphere is a tall order.
Take the under with minimal juice.
Iowa State: Total 8
The Pick – Over (+105)
The Cyclones were 31st in defensive efficiency in 2018 and are returning one of the best linebackers in the country in Mike Rose as their anchor; yes, this is Big 12 section of this article and I led it off with a Defensive plug.
Matt Campbell’s name has been tossed around coaching searches the past few offseasons, as he and his Cylcones have played spoiler quite a bit thus far in his tenure. With a moderate SOS and Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked overall QB in Brock Purdy, our aggs like the Cyclones to take the next step.
ESPN+ currently has their probable wins sitting at 10, with a 45% chance to knock off Baylor in Waco.
Hammer the over with the +money here.