Week 5 Aggregated Picks
via Giphy
So through 4 weeks of aggregated picks and a bunch of travel and upside drunken shit that we’ve put ourselves through – the WiseGuys are sitting at that sexy 60% clip everyone brags about having.
Granted, we rode a HOT week 2 to carry it thus far, but bankrolls don’t discriminate against the Big Picture. And yes, that 60% is a nice round 15 for 25 thus far. Audit us – Weeks 1,2 and 4 are on the site, the aforementioned upside down drunken shit is on my twitter page.
Anyway, lots of conflict and lots of pros taking both sides of many of Week 5’s slate. But here we are, your trusty af aggregator that has identified and pooled these touts into one collective mind.
We’re bringing you 7 official plays this week with some insight into 3 other World Beaters and where the sharps are lining up on these games.
Without further word count fodder – LFG:
THE PICKS
Northwestern +24.5 @ Wisconsin
If you’ve been following along, you’re probably thinking – Faderian, wtf, why do you keep picking this slaw ass Northwestern team?? Well this is the third time in five weeks that the Wildcats have shown up on our consensus, sponsored agg picks. Do I personally like, hell nah. Do the sharps that we tail and aggregate like them to cover an inflated line coupled with a low total number? Yep. Is it a let down spot for the Badgers after beating the absolute dog shit out of the Wither Harbaughs? Maybe.
Listen, its not sexy by any means – but the Wildcats (outside of last weekend against the Spartans,) play really well in Big 10 matchups. Wisconsin will likely lean on Jonathan Taylor to pound them into submission and churn the clock; on the other side, the Wildcats have a more than capable QB in Hunter Johnson – transferred from Trevor Lawrence U – to cover this large number.
Consensus pick – Northwestern +24.5
Central Michigan +17.5 @ Western Michigan
Alright, another noon dawg that is getting all the love from our WiseGuys. Jim McElwain has the Chippewas playing inspired ball, albeit incredibly inefficient (113th nationally according to Football Outsiders.) Western Michigan absolutely lights it up for a team from the MAC – they’re boasting the 25th overall scoring offense in the nation. However, CMU’s defense is respectable. Our WiseGuys had this as a 6-1 play in favor of the Chips – so we’re pushing them in too.
Central Michigan +17.5
Northern Illinois @ Vandy -6
NIU vs Vanderbilt, what a game. Many will watch and be on the edge of their seats… Nah, they won’t – but two well coached defensive squads square off in Nashville and the Dores are getting a light line here according to our agg’d sources.
Vandy is our on NO CONFLICT pick of the week. They have the edge in efficiency (FO sourced again,) and Pro Football Focus shows a disparaging difference in the offensive unit that Vandy will roll out and lead them to covering the 6. Lay it.
Vandy – 6
Kansas +15.5 @ TCU
Les Miles might be bat shit crazy, but Kansas isn’t a guaranteed door mat any more.
Another big line and low total – Kansas will look to exploit their superior ground game and couple it with their more effective Big Time Throw % effective (per Pro Football Focus) and lead the Jayhawks to a respectable cover.
Mississippi State +11 @ Auburn
There was a decent amount of action on the undefeated Auburn Tigers but we had EIGHT (yes 8,) WiseGuys pick the Bulldawgs from terrible ole Starkville, MS. That’s the top number for the year, lending us this sponosored WG pick this week. IF you can get it at 11.5 – do it. But 11 gets us past the key number and some breathing room in what should be a hard fought game.
Out of those 8, 6 sources have this game within a touchdown in their predictive models. Take the extra 4-5 points here.
Mississippi state +11
Kentucky +3 @ South Carolina
Kentucky was 6-1 in our aggs over the Cocks – but 3 of those 6 have them wining outright. I’m going to buy the half point and get it 3.5.
I’m running out of time to get this article out – so if you’re still reading this, go ahead and place those Noon wagers above and don’t think too much about this mediocre SEC East slugfest.
Stoops vs. Muschamp! Cats vs Cocks! SEC! Filler filler filler, Cats cover.
Kentucky +3
Washington State +6.5 @ Utah
The public is all over the Utes right now – a combination of preseason hype in the Pac 12 and Washington State absolutely shitting their pants last week and blowing a massive lead against UCLA.
Our WiseGuys are 7-1 in favor of the Cougars – Utah boasts a defensive line with NFL prospects galore, and this was their calling card for the preseason hype. They’ve lived up to the bill and have the best Defense statistically in the conference thus far. Unfortunately for them in this scenario, Washington State is ridiculously pass heavy and trot out a strong OL compromised of entirely Upper Classmen.
Anthony Gordon, WSU’s QB, is incredible with a clean pocket, but even if/when the Utes dissolve that – he’s checking in with an upper 90’s QBR under pressure. Cougars cover this one.
Washington State +6.5
Marquee Games with lopsided action, but too much conflict to sponsor as official picks:
Texas Tech +27.5 @ Oklahoma – Do the Red Raiders become the first to keep a game close with the Sooners? Probably not, but more of our guys like them to cover than not.
Clemson -26.5 @ UNC – According to the trusty Aggrocrag – the Tigers are about to humble Mack Brown’s resurgent Tar Heels. There was a decent amount of action on UNC to cover this though, so take that for what its worth.
Ohio State @ Nebraksa +17.5 – This one was close to being a consensus, sponsored pick, so my unofficial advice is to toss the Cornhuskers in a teaser.
